Canada Global: Aventura Between Slower Office Economics and Housing Upside That Is Still Not Fully Approved
Aventura's value already rests on more than the office buildings, because the asset includes residential land backed by 675 approved units. But the office metrics weakened in 2025, while the move to 735 units is still unapproved and explicitly excluded from fair value, so the asset sits between booked redevelopment value and still-pending upside.
What Is Already in Aventura's Number
The main article argued that Aventura is the asset where Canada Global's story moves from a standing office property into redevelopment optionality. This follow-up isolates the gap between those two tracks: what is already recognized in value, and what still sits outside the number.
The short answer is that Aventura can no longer be read as just an office building. The end-2025 value is already supported by residential rights that were approved for 675 units. But it is still not a full residential story. The updated 735-unit plan was filed only in January 2026, remains unapproved, and the extra 60 units were explicitly excluded from fair value. So Aventura currently sits in the middle, too soft to qualify as a clean office story and not mature enough to qualify as a fully approved residential redevelopment story.
| Layer | What is already supported | What is still open | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Office asset | The base appraisal supports a $99 million office component | It still needs rent improvement, leasing progress, and refinancing of the $80 million loan by November 2026 | The office business by itself did not provide full support for the valuation uplift in 2025 |
| Residential land | The base appraisal supports $56.6 million of residential land value based on 675 approved units | The company still cannot estimate project profitability because the final unit mix is not settled | The residential layer is already material inside value, so Aventura is not just an office asset |
| The move from 675 to 735 units | A planning application was filed in January 2026 | The application is still unapproved, and the extra 60 units were excluded from the valuation analysis and value conclusion | The upside is real, but it is not yet booked |
That split matters because it shows that Aventura's value already gives credit to approved residential rights, not only to a cash-yielding office building. At the same time, it still does not give credit to the most bullish version of the story. That is the middle ground the reader needs to keep in mind before jumping to the next headline about 735 units.
The Office Asset Still Has Not Closed the Gap
Based on the full-property 2024 figures that the company presents, even though those pre-acquisition numbers are unaudited and unreviewed, Aventura's 2025 revenue fell to $12.773 million from $13.666 million, and NOI fell to $7.304 million from $7.757 million. Average occupancy declined to 89.1% from 91%. That is not a collapse, but it is also not office economics that can explain the valuation uplift on their own.
The rent gap tells the same story. The company itself points to market rent of roughly $58 per square foot, versus an in-place average at the property of about $53.97. The sharper detail is that leases signed in 2025 averaged about $53.64 per square foot. So the gap to market has not yet been closed even in the newly signed space.
The more interesting point is that the appraisal itself is not built on a fantasy of full occupancy. Its representative occupancy assumption is 86.91%, actually below year-end occupancy. But its representative year-11 NOI is $10.923 million, almost 50% above 2025 NOI, alongside a 3% annual rent growth assumption. In other words, the office value already assumes a materially better earnings profile from leasing quality and pricing, not just preservation of the current run-rate.
The March 23, 2026 no-change letter does not provide a shortcut around that issue. It describes a Miami office market that stabilized, not one that suddenly accelerated: leasing demand stabilized, Class A rents were flat to modestly higher, but concession packages became heavier. So anyone looking for a broad office-market tailwind at Aventura gets a more conservative message from the evidence. If improvement comes, it will have to be mainly asset-specific.
The Residential Option Is Real, but Not Fully Inside the Value
The reason Aventura still holds meaningful value even though the office piece did not shine is that the residential layer is already inside the appraisal. The approved 675-unit rights have real value inside the number. That is why it is too simplistic to say the market is only pricing a weak office property, or on the other side that the filings already capture the full redevelopment story. Both readings go too far.
To see what is actually inside, it helps to separate the mid-2025 base appraisal from the year-end support. The base appraisal split Aventura into a $99 million office component and $56.6 million of residential land. At year-end the company relied on a no-change letter stating that there had been no material change in market conditions or in the property's highest and best use. So the support for the end-2025 number rested on stability, not on a fresh full appraisal embedding another step-up.
This is where the key distinction comes in. In January 2026 the project company filed for a redesign and unit-mix update that would raise the plan to 735 residential units from 675. But the company itself says it cannot yet estimate project profitability because the final unit mix is still unknown. And the March 23, 2026 no-change letter makes the point even more clearly: the extra 60 units beyond 675 were not reflected in the valuation analysis or the value conclusion because the application was still unapproved at the measurement date.
Even if the 735 version is eventually approved, it is not just a simple unit-count increase. Under the updated plan, the project would also take on public obligations, including 20 affordable-housing units and about $4.2 million of school payments. So the upside is real, but it is not free upside that can be added automatically to today's carrying value.
The no-change letter reinforces that picture from a broader angle as well. It says there was no material shift in either the Miami office market or the Miami residential market between late 2024 and late 2025. So even on the housing side there is no macro rerating that removes the need to think through approval, unit mix, and final economics.
What This Means for Aventura Now
Aventura is now a hybrid asset. On one side, the office property weakened in 2025, and even its appraisal depends on future NOI that is materially above the current NOI. On the other side, a meaningful residential layer already sits inside value based on 675 approved units. But the more bullish 735-unit version still sits outside the valuation.
That is why the right question on Aventura is not whether the office is good or whether the residential plan is exciting. The real question is where the line sits between value that has already been recognized and value that still requires approval, financing, and execution. As of the end of 2025, the company has already received credit for approved residential optionality. It has not yet received credit for the extra 60 units. At the same time, it still has to prove that the office property can move toward the leasing economics assumed by the appraisal.
Three checkpoints matter from here:
- Whether in-place rents and new leases start moving materially closer to the roughly $58 per square foot market level the company cites.
- Whether the 735-unit application moves from filing to approval, and what the final unit mix implies for real project profitability.
- Whether refinancing of the $80 million loan before November 2026 can be achieved on the back of a steadier office asset and a more advanced residential path, not just on a planning story on paper.
If those three lines move together, Aventura can move from a mixed interim story to an asset with a much cleaner read. If not, it will remain an asset whose value runs ahead of its operating proof.
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