Tigbur: How Much of Nursing Profit Really Depends on the New National Insurance Tender
National Insurance generated NIS 630 million for Tigbur in 2025, about 71% of nursing revenue, but the immediate risk in the new tender is not necessarily lost revenue. The current extension on existing terms through the end of 2026 protects continuity, while the tariff and tariff-structure changes shift the real test to margin.
What This Follow-Up Is Isolating
The main Tigbur article made the broader point, growth is still there, but the group is not getting much operating leverage out of it. This follow-up narrows the lens to one sharper question, how much of nursing profit really sits on the new National Insurance Institute tender.
The short answer: more than a casual reader would like, but less than the headline phrase "dependence on National Insurance" implies at first glance. National Insurance generated NIS 630 million for Tigbur in 2025. That equals about 41.8% of group revenue, about 62.4% of the manpower and nursing segment, and about 70.5% of nursing revenue itself. That is a very large revenue base. At the same time, as of the annual report, the existing engagement was extended on unchanged terms through December 31, 2026, with a one-year option or until the tender process is completed, so the immediate risk is not a revenue cliff. It is a reset in the economics of the next contract.
The report does not give a clean disclosed number for how much National Insurance contributes to nursing profit. Tigbur does not publish stand-alone nursing profit, only profit for the combined manpower and nursing segment. But it does give two anchors that let you build a reasonable bridge. First, nursing revenue was NIS 893 million in 2025. Second, the company says there are no material profitability differences between the product groups inside the segment. When that is paired with the segment's 4.1% operating margin, the result is a rough analytical bridge, not a reported accounting figure, suggesting that about NIS 26 million of nursing operating profit is tied to National Insurance revenue.
| Layer | 2025 figure | National Insurance share |
|---|---|---|
| Group revenue | NIS 1,507.4 million | 41.8% |
| Manpower and nursing segment | NIS 1,010.1 million | 62.4% |
| Nursing services | NIS 893 million | 70.5% |
| Analytical bridge only, segment profit at a 4.1% margin | About NIS 41.4 million | About NIS 25.8 million on the National Insurance revenue base |
That last line is the key point. Looking only at group level can make National Insurance look like a very large customer, but not the entire story. Looking at the nursing core tells a different story, roughly seven out of every ten shekels of nursing revenue come from National Insurance. That is why the new tender matters so much. Not because all nursing revenue disappears overnight, but because even a small change in contract economics now touches most of the field's revenue base.
Why Revenue Continuity Looks Better Than Margin Continuity
The easiest mistake here is to confuse revenue continuity with profit stability. The annual report draws that distinction clearly. On the one hand, on October 28, 2025, National Insurance announced an extension of the engagement with nursing-service providers from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026, with a one-year option or until the tender process ends, on the same terms as the current arrangement. On the other hand, the same report states that the new tender includes changes in the tariff and in the tariff structure, and that if the defects are not corrected there could be some harm to segment results.
The tender structure matters as well. This is not a price tender. It is a list tender. Providers that meet the threshold conditions and clear the required quality score are included among the winners. That reduces the risk of an immediate volume hit caused by aggressive price competition. It does not eliminate the economic risk. If the base tariff changes, if the tariff structure changes, or if the scoring system changes the labor and compliance burden, Tigbur can remain in the system and still earn less on every hour of care.
| What supports revenue continuity | What puts margin at risk |
|---|---|
| The current engagement was extended through the end of 2026 on existing terms | The new tender changes the tariff and the tariff structure |
| This is a list tender, not a price tender | The company says some of the criteria are unreasonable and outside its control |
| Management says it meets the threshold conditions and the quality criteria under its control | Management still cannot quantify the size of the potential hit to segment results |
That gap, strong revenue continuity but weaker margin visibility, is the part the market can easily miss. The company itself marks the distinction. It does not say the tender is likely to cause a material hit to company revenue, assuming it is included among the winners. But it does say there could be some harm to segment results. That is the more interesting sentence. It says the real question is not whether the revenue stays, but at what margin it stays.
Where the Profit Squeeze Can Show Up
To see why this matters, it helps to remember how thin the segment's profit base already is. In the investor presentation Tigbur frames manpower and nursing as the group's core activity, with NIS 1,010 million of revenue, 67% of group revenue, and a 4.1% operating margin. That is enough to make nursing a meaningful growth engine, but it is not a wide cushion. There is not much room for tariff slippage or a more demanding contract structure.
The report already shows what that pressure looks like before the new tender even takes effect. In the fourth quarter of 2025, manpower and nursing revenue rose 10.7% to NIS 249.8 million, yet operating profit fell 2.6% to NIS 7.3 million. The company attributes that to excess holiday-pay days and to tender-preparation costs tied to National Insurance. In other words, even before a formal tariff reset, the process around the tender is already weighing on margin.
This is exactly why the tender is a profit question, not just a revenue question. On a NIS 630 million National Insurance revenue base, every 0.5 percentage point of margin is worth roughly NIS 3.15 million a year, and every full percentage point is worth roughly NIS 6.3 million. In a field that already operates on low single-digit margins, that is not noise.
| Annual margin change on the National Insurance revenue base | Mechanical effect on segment profit |
|---|---|
| Down 0.5 percentage point | About NIS 3.15 million |
| Down 1.0 percentage point | About NIS 6.3 million |
That still does not make the tender the whole story. Tigbur has another NIS 263 million of nursing revenue outside National Insurance, plus NIS 117 million of manpower activity inside the same segment. So even within the segment, not every shekel runs through this tender. But once the company itself says there are no material profitability differences between the product groups in the segment, using the segment margin as a rough frame becomes fair. The message from that bridge is straightforward, the tender is not all of nursing profit, but it sits on a large enough share of nursing revenue that any tariff-structure change will be felt in earnings.
What the Presentation Sells, and What the Annual Report Qualifies
The presentation is built to make the reader focus on the comfortable part of the story. Nursing is presented as the core activity, as long-term recurring revenue, as contract-based work, as a high-barrier field, and as a stable operating engine built on institutional customers. That framing is not detached from reality. Nursing does sit at the center of the group, and public contracts do create a wide base of recurring activity.
But the annual report is more careful, and for good reason. There the company stops telling a pure stability story. It says some of the tender criteria are unreasonable, outside its control, and inconsistent with the current framework. It also does not promise that the economic impact will be trivial. Its wording is more precise, the expected effect is not material to company revenue, assuming the company is included among the winners, but there may still be some harm to segment results.
| Presentation message | What the annual report adds |
|---|---|
| Nursing is the core activity, 67% of group revenue | That core is highly concentrated, 70.5% of nursing revenue comes from National Insurance |
| This is long-term recurring revenue with institutional customers | The current contract is extended, but the economics of the next contract are still open |
| Entry barriers are high and the model is built on control and scale | Winning still depends on criteria that the company says are partly outside its control |
| The business model points to stable cash generation | Q4 already shows that tender-preparation costs alone can dent margin despite revenue growth |
That gap between the two layers, presentation stability versus annual-report caution, is exactly where a continuation piece should slow down. Management wants the reader to focus on the anchor, contracted activity, public-sector relationships, and scale advantages. The annual report forces the harder follow-up, what is the price of that anchor, and what happens when tariff design and scoring logic change while revenue continuity stays in place.
Bottom Line
If you try to answer the headline question directly, without hiding behind generic wording, the answer is that the National Insurance tender sits under most of Tigbur's nursing economics, but not all of them, and the main risk is not 2026 volume, it is the margin profile of the new framework once it is implemented. Based on the figures the company does disclose, National Insurance accounts for about 70.5% of nursing revenue. If you use the segment's average operating margin only as a bridging exercise, that translates into roughly NIS 25.8 million out of a rough NIS 36.6 million bridge for nursing operating profit. That is not a reported accounting number, but it is the right order of magnitude for the exposure.
That leads to three near-term checkpoints. First, what survives in the final tariff and tariff structure after the legal and clarification process. Second, whether Tigbur is indeed included among the winners without a meaningful economic concession. Third, whether the manpower and nursing segment can restabilize its margin after the preparation costs, or whether the fourth quarter was an early preview of a longer squeeze.
As of the annual report, the Supreme Court discussion was set for April 19, 2026, and bid submission was set for April 29, 2026. Those are the dates that make this follow-up immediately relevant. If the market keeps treating Tigbur as a steady growth story because revenue continuity looks intact, while the economics of nursing are already shifting underneath, this tender will matter more to profit than to headline revenue. That is the gap this continuation is trying to isolate.
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