How Near Is Aviv's Backlog Really: Why Most Future Profit Sits in 2028
Aviv shows NIS 234.5 million of unrecognized gross profit in very material projects, but after year-end it had only NIS 13.6 million of signed revenue and NIS 3.5 million of signed gross profit left to recognize. Most of the economic reservoir sits in projects with no sales yet, so it belongs far more to 2028 and beyond than to 2026.
This Is Not One Backlog
The main article focused on Aviv's balance-sheet reset. This follow-up isolates a different question: how much of the profit the company presents as not yet recognized can actually reach the financial statements soon, and how much of it is really a 2028-and-later story.
The gap is sharp. After 31 December 2025, Aviv had only NIS 13.620 million of signed revenue and NIS 3.478 million of signed gross profit left to recognize. Against that, the table of very material projects shows NIS 234.544 million of unrecognized gross profit. That is not one backlog. The first number is tied to signed contracts. The second is an economic reservoir that still has to pass through permits, financing, marketing, signed sales, and execution.
The composition of that reservoir is the real issue. Out of NIS 234.544 million of unrecognized gross profit in the very material projects, NIS 218.737 million sits in Be'er Ya'akov, Kiryat Gat, and Havatzelet Netanya. As of 31 December 2025, all three still had no marketing, no signed sales contracts, and 0% completion by construction inputs. In other words, more than 93% of the future profit in the very material project set does not sit near 2026 at all.
| Layer | What it includes | Figure as of 31.12.2025 | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Signed backlog | Sales contracts already signed | NIS 13.620 million of revenue and NIS 3.478 million of gross profit | This is the layer that is actually near |
| Projects under construction | 335 units, of which 33 still unsold | NIS 32.326 million of unrecognized gross profit | Even the broader 2026 read remains limited |
| Completed but unsold inventory | 9 units in completed projects | NIS 28.451 million of revenue and NIS 13.937 million of gross profit | Real and relatively near, but still not a reservoir of hundreds of millions |
| Very material projects with no sales | Be'er Ya'akov, Kiryat Gat, Havatzelet Netanya | NIS 218.737 million of unrecognized gross profit | This is where most future profit sits, but it is not contracted yet |
What Is Actually Near
The signed backlog schedule looks almost opposite to the impression created by the project tables. Aviv shows NIS 7.023 million of revenue and NIS 916 thousand of gross profit for the first quarter of 2026, then only about NIS 6.6 million of revenue spread across the rest of 2026, 2027, and 2028 onward. In total, only NIS 3.478 million of signed gross profit remained to be recognized after year-end.
Even if the read is widened beyond the signed backlog line, the near-term pool is still not large. In the projects-under-construction section, the company shows 335 units, inventory cost of NIS 89.017 million, and NIS 32.326 million of total unrecognized gross profit. Inside that layer, only 33 units in projects under construction were still without a signed sale contract, and only 4 additional contracts were signed between period end and the report date. Put differently, the existing 2026 engine is narrow even before one looks at the longer-dated pipeline.
The completed-but-not-fully-sold projects add another real but limited layer: 9 units in inventory, NIS 28.451 million of expected revenue, and NIS 13.937 million of expected gross profit. That is much closer than the figures attached to Be'er Ya'akov, Kiryat Gat, and Havatzelet, but it still does not explain the NIS 234.5 million number that catches the eye in the very material project table.
Where The Big Profit Actually Sits
To understand backlog quality, Narkisim has to be separated from the three projects that have not started to sell. Narkisim is almost finished: completion by construction inputs already reached 97.6%, the updated completion date is March 2026, and only NIS 15.807 million of unrecognized gross profit remains. That profit still has to roll through the financial statements, but it already sits inside a live, advanced project with actual sales.
The other three projects tell a very different story. In Be'er Ya'akov, the company shows NIS 28.719 million of unrecognized gross profit, but as of 31 December 2025 there was no marketing, no construction, no signed sales, and 0% completion. The detailed table is also less near than the headline summary implies: the expected completion date in the detailed project table moved to 2029, while the NIS 128 million land financing line remains usable only until 31 January 2027.
Kiryat Gat is slightly more advanced at the land stage, but still distant in profit timing. Aviv shows NIS 58.770 million of unrecognized gross profit there, and again there was no marketing, no construction, and 0% completion as of year-end. The expected completion date is 2028, while the NIS 35 million land financing line and guarantee facility also run only until 31 January 2027.
Havatzelet Netanya carries the largest share of the gap. The company shows NIS 131.248 million of unrecognized gross profit in this project, with no sales, no marketing, and no construction started as of 31 December 2025. Planned construction start is 2027, expected end of marketing is 2029, and the detailed table puts expected construction completion in 2029. This is also where section 1.1.5 matters: at the end of December 2025 the bank agreed to extend the land-financing maturity to 4 February 2027 with no other change in financing terms. So the biggest future-profit project is still at the stage where land financing and permitting have to be bridged before one can even start talking about profit recognition.
That is the core point. Aviv does not lack theoretical gross profit. It lacks near-dated, contracted, and scheduled gross profit. Anyone looking only at the NIS 234.5 million of unrecognized gross profit can easily read it like a near backlog. In practice, most of it belongs to projects whose path runs first through 2026 and 2027 as years of permitting, financing, and initial marketing, and only later through 2028 and 2029 as years of execution and delivery.
What Has To Move From Vision To Contract
This is where backlog quality becomes the real issue. In a residential developer, unrecognized gross profit is useful only once it advances a stage. Aviv's test over the next 2 to 4 quarters is not whether the theoretical reservoir stays large on paper, but whether part of it starts turning into signed contracts.
Checkpoint one: permits and full project financing. Be'er Ya'akov, Kiryat Gat, and Havatzelet already have land financing, but not the kind of execution-stage support that turns modeled profit into recognized profit. Any delay in permits or in the move to full project financing keeps that NIS 218.7 million at a safe distance from the income statement.
Checkpoint two: real marketing. The three large projects that are supposed to replace Narkisim all stood at zero signed sales at the end of 2025. Until the first meaningful block of contracts appears, the large figures in the project tables remain mostly estimates.
Checkpoint three: alignment between the language of the project tables and the language of the financial statements. Aviv presents expected gross profit on one side and expected withdrawable surpluses on another. Those are not the same thing. In Havatzelet, for example, the expected NIS 149.527 million of withdrawable surplus also includes NIS 49.421 million of equity already invested. So anyone looking for near backlog should measure contracts first, revenue second, and only then project-end surpluses.
Conclusion
The right continuation read on Aviv is simple: the large reservoir exists, but it is distant. At the end of 2025, what is truly signed was very small, what was already under construction was also not especially large, and the overwhelming majority of future profit sat in projects that had not yet entered a commercial stage.
That does not make the backlog weak. It makes the backlog less near than the aggregate number suggests. If 2026 brings permits, marketing launches, and first contracts in Be'er Ya'akov, Kiryat Gat, and Havatzelet, that gap will start to close. If not, the NIS 234.5 million of unrecognized gross profit will remain mostly a 2028-and-later number, not an engine for the coming year.
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