Utron: How Much of the Backlog Really Belongs to 2026, and How Much Slips to 2027 and Beyond
This follow-up to the main article isolates the real issue in Utron's backlog: not only that it is smaller, but that it sits further out in time. Of the NIS 231.4 million year-end backlog, NIS 167.1 million was already pushed into 2027 and beyond, so the new parking contract wave creates future workload more than it creates clear 2026 visibility.
What This Follow-up Is Testing
The main article already established that Utron's backlog became smaller, more parking-heavy, and more back-end loaded. This continuation isolates the question that matters now: how much of that backlog really belongs to 2026, and how much already sits in 2027 and beyond.
That is not a technical distinction. For Utron, signed contracts, recorded backlog, and near-term revenue are three different layers. In parking, contracts are billed by milestones and usually run over 12 to 18 months for semi-autonomous systems and 24 to 36 months for fully autonomous systems. That means a new contract headline can strengthen the distant future while doing very little for the next 12 months of revenue visibility.
The numbers make that gap unusually clear. At the end of 2025, backlog stood at NIS 231.4 million, but only NIS 64.4 million of that was scheduled for revenue recognition across the four quarters of 2026. NIS 167.1 million, or 72.2% of backlog, was already pushed into 2027 and beyond. Near report date, total backlog fell to NIS 215.0 million, of which only NIS 47.9 million remained for Q2 to Q4 of 2026, while NIS 167.1 million still sat in 2027 and beyond. In other words, 77.7% of the remaining backlog was already outside 2026.
That is the core of the continuation. Even after the new contract wave, most of the backlog that still matters for the future is not a 2026 backlog. It belongs to the years after that. This is also why the drop from NIS 274.2 million of backlog at the end of 2024 to NIS 231.4 million at the end of 2025 matters less than the question of where that backlog now sits in time.
| Timing layer | End of 2025 | Near report date | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | NIS 16.4 million | - | By report date there was no future backlog balance left in that quarter |
| Q2 to Q4 of 2026 | NIS 47.9 million | NIS 47.9 million | This was the full visible remainder for 2026 at report date |
| 2027 and beyond | NIS 167.1 million | NIS 167.1 million | This is the dominant backlog layer |
| Total | NIS 231.4 million | NIS 215.0 million | Backlog is smaller, but more importantly it is further out |
The mix shift reinforces the same point. Parking made up 60% of backlog at the end of 2024, 72% at the end of 2025, and 77% near report date, while logistics fell to only 23%. So the question is not only how much backlog the company has. The question is how much relatively short-cycle backlog is still left while the logistics engine that actually carried 2025 becomes a smaller layer inside the forward order book.
What The New Parking Contracts Do And Do Not Say
Between January and December 2025, plus the Phase A agreement signed on December 31, Utron signed five material parking agreements. Together they amount to about NIS 38 million. But that is not the same thing as NIS 38 million for 2026.
| Date | Project | Expected value | What is known about timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.1.2025 | Manhattan autonomous parking project | NIS 8.5 million | Planned completion within 24 months from project start |
| 9.5.2025 | California Utron-Puzzle project | NIS 5.5 million | Planned completion within 24 months from project start |
| 14.10.2025 | California Utron-Puzzle project | NIS 9.0 million | Planned completion within 24 months from project start |
| 22.12.2025 | California Utron-Puzzle project | NIS 4.0 million | Planned completion within 24 months from project start |
| 31.12.2025 | Phase A of a South California Utron Slide project | NIS 11.0 million out of an expected NIS 41.0 million | Only Phase A is signed, it includes raw-material purchases, and it is non-cancellable even if the broader agreement is not signed |
Those contracts do say something important. Demand is real, and the material contract thread disclosed during 2025 was built mainly around US parking, especially California. But they still do not say that near-term revenue is already secured. The first four agreements are billed by milestones and are designed to complete over 24 months. That timing fits a picture in which work progresses, but a meaningful part of the value still stays beyond 2026.
The biggest contract headline is still not the full contract. The December 31, 2025 project may look like a NIS 41 million story, but what is actually signed is only an NIS 11 million Phase A agreement. It does include raw-material purchases and it is non-cancellable, which gives it better contractual quality than a simple expectation. But the remaining NIS 30 million still depends on the broader agreement the company expects to sign in the first half of 2026.
Put differently, the new contract wave has proven demand. It has not yet proven the pace of recognition. For timing quality, that is the key difference.
What Really Belongs To 2026
If the visible 2026 backlog is compared with the revenue base Utron already produced in 2025, the gap is hard to miss. Utron finished 2025 with NIS 113.3 million of revenue. Against that, backlog scheduled for recognition during 2026 stood at only NIS 64.4 million at year-end, equal to 56.8% of the 2025 revenue run rate. Near report date, only NIS 47.9 million remained for Q2 to Q4 of 2026, equal to 42.3% of the 2025 revenue run rate.
These numbers are not guidance, and they do not mean Utron cannot surprise positively. What they do set is a clear threshold: the visible backlog is still meaningfully below the revenue pace the company already showed in 2025. For 2026 to look like a direct continuation of 2025, one of three things will have to happen, and probably more than one: parking milestones will need to progress faster, new orders will have to enter, or logistics will have to carry more than a 23% share of backlog near report date would suggest.
This is no longer a question of whether there is work. It is a question of how much of that work will actually arrive on time. That is why "parking backlog" and "2026 visibility" are not interchangeable ideas. The first speaks to depth of demand and future workload. The second speaks to the pace at which backlog converts into revenue.
Conclusion
Any follow-on read of Utron now has to separate three layers: signed contracts, recorded backlog, and revenue that is actually visible for 2026. Right now the third layer is far shorter than the first two.
That makes the central 2026 test something other than another contract announcement. The real test is whether the 2026 bucket starts to come down through recognized revenue rather than through another slide into 2027 and beyond, and whether the South California Phase A agreement actually closes into the full contract without leaving most of the headline outside the near-term window.
If those two things happen, the quality of Utron's backlog will look better very quickly. If not, a meaningful part of the 2025 headlines will turn out to have built mainly 2027.